The overall aim of this work package is to develop an integrated model to assess the social, environmental and economic consequences of a future water-sensitive and climate-adapted urban water management in comparison to traditional water management. We will be able to assess the effect of single solutions, portfolio combinations and transition pathways (from WP 2) and thus provide a ‘learning laboratory’ for designing and testing water management policies from the neighbourhood to city scale. Altogether we will frame, develop or further advance 3 modelling tools: a tool for urban hydrological modelling (WP 3A), a social impact assessment framework (WP 3B) and an integrated model based on system dynamics (WP 3C). The tools will be developed for Oslo, but in principle they will also be applicable to other Nordic cities.
Overall WP-lead: Brooke Wilkerson (UiB)
Contributors: NIVA, NINA, UiO, VAV, SoCentral, WEnR, NTNU
WP 3A: Urban hydrological assessment & Classification of spatial stormwater retention potential
In this part of WP 3, satellite remote sensing data will be combined with GIS data such as slope, impermeable areas, canopy cover, vegetation structure, soil types, to create very fine resolution Land Use Land Cover and impervious surface area maps. These datasets provide essential information to classify urban areas in Oslo according to their stormwater retention potential and run-off coefficients.
This information will be validated by using an urban hydrological model, which will be set up at high spatial resolution for parts of Oslo. The hydrological model will be improved for being able to better take into account the hydrological effects of stormwater measures (permeable pavement, rain gardens, green roofs, street planters, rain barrels, infiltration trenches, vegetative swales) in northern climates. The modelling will be done in three pilot areas in Oslo, tentatively in Hovinbyen district (new development with degrees of freedom in planning), Kværnerdalen/Svartdalen/Alna district (area with preserved natural riverine swaths) and Kjelsås neighbourhood (detached housing with ongoing densification). The model will serve as a platform for simulating run-off under different development scenarios, effectiveness of stormwater measures and spatially resolved impact on stormwater production and flooding.
WP-lead: Hong Li (University of Oslo)
WP 3B: Social impact assessment
With a focus on the co-benefits of stormwater solutions in this part of WP 3, a framework to assess the social impacts of stormwater measures will be developed. We will apply it to evaluate the social impact of the tested citizen participation approaches in WP 4. The novelty of the approach is, that it does not stop at the level of easily countable indicators (e.g. number of participants in citizen participation activities), but uses indicators at the effect level (e.g. increased awareness for stormwater issues after citizen participation activity).
WP-lead: Håkon Iversen (SoCentral)
WP 3C: Integrated water management assessment
In this part of WP 3, we will develop a system dynamics model for assessing the economic, social, environmental, governmental impacts and implications of changes in urban water management. The model will be built in a participatory modelling process to account for several interconnected sectors and build trust into the model and its results. Results from the hydrological, societal and economic assessment will be integrated. The model results will be discussed in a feedback-evaluation-workshop with stakeholders at the end of the project.
WP-lead: Brooke Wilkerson (UiO)